Forum:2016 Pacific hurricane season
Future Start Last year's EPAC season was incredible, and I doubt 2016 will be anything close due to the dissipation of El Niño. However, I'm still excited to see another EPAC season, and I'm hoping for some interesting storms, as even in 2010 there were some surprises (Celia and Omeka). Plus this year may be more active then expected if it's true that the EPAC is becoming more active again as it does every 20 years or so. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 21:32, December 29, 2015 (UTC) I think the 2016 Pacific hurricane season will likely be slightly below normal due to the possibility of a La Nina event, which usually inhibits Pacific tropical cyclone development due to cooler waters and more wind shear. If we are in a warm PDO/cold AMO as some are saying, 2016 will likely be close to normal in the Pacific. Bob (talk) - Merry Christmas! 00:51, December 30, 2015 (UTC) Pre-Season Might as well have this section here, just in case. 01C.PALI 90C.INVEST Good call for the section. New invest west of the International Date Line. Not sure if anything's going to happen with it, though. Jake52 (talk) 01:39, January 6, 2016 (UTC) : I wonder if this has any relation with TD 9C. Either way, it's similar in that it's very near the equator. This system seems to have a better chance at becoming Pali, as it has more organization, and more model support. But two systems of notability within one week during the off season is incredible, even with El Nino. I'm hoping for an off-season Pali this time, unlike the dissipation of 9C. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 04:29, January 6, 2016 (UTC) ::: It's now on the CPHC outlook, with a 50% chance of development. It's looking better organized today, and I would not be surprised to see Pali soon. The CPAC really just refuses to quit! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 14:42, January 6, 2016 (UTC) ::::: This is not Ex-9-C, it's a different area of disturbed weather that formed in the area 9-C did. For the strongest super El Nino on record, I'm not surprised we got an off-season depression at the end of last year, and if this new system becomes Pali, it'll beat Ekeka's record of 1992 for being the earlest CPac storm on record. Also, it's funny how the CPac has had a storm exist in every month of the year, but no storm has formed in the East Pacific proper (up to 140 west) before the month of May. Ryan1000 20:11, January 6, 2016 (UTC) Tropical Depression One-C Ekeka. your record has been broken. --HurricaneOdile | happy holidays! and year 14:11, January 7, 2016 (UTC) : Yay! This system continues to look more orgainized then it acually is though, looks like it should be a TS by now. But I sure didn't expect the 2016 Pacific hurricane season to start this early! Also note it's size compared to Ula, it's about 10 times bigger in terms of diameter! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 14:26, January 7, 2016 (UTC) ::: A week after we saw the record latest end, we now have the record earliest start. Amazing. And this looks a lot better than 9-C did, this one has a good shot at becoming Pali. And actually, according to Eric Blake, this one beat Winoa of 1989 for being the earliest start to an EPac season ever, not Ekeka (though Winoa wasn't operationally classified by the CPHC until the 16th). Ryan1000 19:02, January 7, 2016 (UTC) ::::: I think it's already a tropical storm based on satellite estimates now. I agree that it looks much better than 9C, and it's a lot larger and more symmetrical, and is really quite beautiful, especially compared to 9C. The first advisory also displays a very small chance of hurricane-force winds. I'm amazed to see such an early start to the EPAC. I mean, how often does the first EPAC storm form before the first WPAC storm? ~Raindrop57 (talk) 19:39, January 7, 2016 (UTC) Tropical Storm Pali Yep. 45 kts/1000 mbar. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 20:46, January 7, 2016 (UTC) : And so the earliest named storm on record in the EPAC is official. And it's not a total weakling either. It also looks to be pretty long lasting, especially for the off-season. I'm amazed that the CPAC activity is carrying on past the new year, but it is a super El Nino, so anything's possible. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 22:27, January 7, 2016 (UTC) : :: Are you kidding me? There's already a storm out there? And something to watch in the Atlantic too! Unbelievable Leeboy1002016 22:47, January 7, 2016 (UTC) :::::There was an eye effect earlier today.--Isaac829 02:21, January 8, 2016 (UTC) :::::This actually doesn't look half-bad, Pali may even become a hurricane as it slowly heads northwest. That would also break Ekeka's record for earliest EPac hurricane ever. A major hurricane might be taking it too far though. Ryan1000 04:48, January 8, 2016 (UTC) Um... this thing is now a strong TS according to ATCF... CP, 01, 2016010812, , BEST, 0, 70N, 1719W, 55, 994, TS, 50, NEQ, 40, 40, 0, 0, 1010, 275, 30, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, PALI, D, If we end up getting a hurricane in early January, I will scream. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 14:29, January 8, 2016 (UTC) : Despite the recent increase in strength, Pali seems to be getting less organized. It looked better as a depression then it does now... ~Raindrop57 (talk) 19:29, January 8, 2016 (UTC) : LOL, this is such an oddball. Also, Dylan, about January hurricanes, it's happened before. Ekeka comes to mind. Alice in 1954 was a year-crosser hurricane that reached hurricane strength in January 1955. Although, this would be the earliest hurricane on record in the Pacific. Leeboy1002016 23:22, January 8, 2016 (UTC) ::: The pressure rose 2 milibars to 996 in the latest advisory, looks like Pali is starting to slip. It better get its act back together if it wants to become a hurricane, though it still has a while to beat Ekeka's record. 20-30 knot shear is on the rise over this storm right now, which explains the weakening trend. Hopefully Pali can survive it, it's not affecting any populated land areas (outside of, maybe a few small islands) and it would be nice to see the earliest EPac hurricane on record. Ryan1000 03:59, January 9, 2016 (UTC) ::: This thing is supposed to start heading towards the equator.... ::: I think it's safe to say that logic no longer applies to hurricanes. I can see it now, Pali rapidly intensifies to 205 mph winds and 877 Millibar pressure, beating Patricia, before crossing the equator and intensifying even more to 215 mph and 864 millibars, beating Tip. It crosses the equator again and heads toward Mexico as a cat. 1. :D ::: In all seriousness, Pali is currently at 65 mph and 996 millibars. If this thing somehow does cross the equator, I wouldn't be surprised. It's 2016, anything can happen. Leeboy100Hello! 05:03, January 9, 2016 (UTC) :::: It probably won't survive much longer due to it creeping towards the equator. The equator usually never supports tropical cyclones right over it or closing on it, so I would actually be a bit surprised to see Pali become a hurricane. It is really amazing to see the storms developing in the NHem in the middle of winter, including that one Atlantic AOI with a chance of developing subtropical characteristics. I thought the basins were supposed to be dead by now! [[User:Steve820 |'''Steve820]] ��[[Message Wall:Steve820 #top|''2016 has arrived!]] ��' 01:29, January 10, 2016 (UTC) :::::According to models, Pali is expected to defy the laws of physics. Most models take it towards or even over the equator, while strengthening it. The few that don't though, are better models. Pali is remaining at minimal TS strength, but the weakening trend has at least leveled off for now. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 16:07, January 10, 2016 (UTC) :::::Actually, Pali's making a nice comeback from having no convection. There's a continuous burst of convection over the center, and it appears that Pali is restrengthening. Not bad for a storm in January! If Pali keeps this up, maybe it will become a hurricane. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 18:25, January 10, 2016 (UTC) :::::New advisory brings Pali back to 45kts/50mph. Oddly, the new forecast is otherwise exactly the same, bringing Pali once again to minimal TS strength in 12 hours before leveling off in intensity. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 21:14, January 10, 2016 (UTC) HWRF goes bonkers with Pali --HurricaneOdile | happy holidays! and year 21:46, January 10, 2016 (UTC) Wut? http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/central-pacific/2016/tropical-storm-Pali?map=5day I have no words. Leeboy100Hello! 03:29, January 11, 2016 (UTC) : Woah! After slipping in intensity the past two days, Pali is back up to 65 mph but the pressure hit 990 mbars. This looks really nice right now, it wouldn't surprise me if we have a hurricane soon enough. Ryan1000 12:18, January 11, 2016 (UTC) ::: I wasn't too sure about that 65 mph advisory, and they didn't seem to be either, so Pali was lowered to 993mb/60mph. But now, not very long after that, I see a faint eye feature again, so it seems to be back up to 65mph. I'm really hoping for hurricane Pali soon. The HWRF seems kind of too high, but with all the tropical craziness, anything's possible. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 16:07, January 11, 2016 (UTC) ::::: And it looks like the next advisory will be for''' hurricane''' Pali. It's recently developed a well-defined eye, and satellite estimates have reached T4.0/65kts. Say hello to the earliest EPAC hurricane on record! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 19:30, January 11, 2016 (UTC ::::: New advisory - 70 mph. But the new forecast brings Pali to hurricane strength. The discussion said that since the eye had only recently developed, they were going to wait on upgrading to hurricane strength. Still, Pali should be a hurricane in the next advisory. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 21:44, January 11, 2016 (UTC) ::::: Everybody's joking right? Is Pali seriously close to hurricane strength? It has an eye too! You know what, I'm not even surprised anymore. Also, look how close the forecast takes this thing to the equator! My head hurts though, I think it's about to explode due to all the craziness. Leeboy100Hello! 22:25, January 11, 2016 (UTC) Hurricane Pali its here! --HurricaneOdile | happy holidays! and year 00:52, January 12, 2016 (UTC) : Alright, this is really amazing and record breaking. I can't believe we are seeing a CPac hurricane in winter! The latest CPHC advisory still has it at 70 mph, but they should update it soon. [[User:Steve820 |'''Steve820]] ''Talk to me''' 02:45, January 12, 2016 (UTC) ::Confirmed on the site. 85 mph.--Isaac829 03:07, January 12, 2016 (UTC) ::::Looks like Ekeka's record for earliest hurricane has been broken, and this also looks really nice. It's eye is small and well-defined on sattelite imagery, it might even become a cat 2, though I'm still thinking a major hurricane is pushing it. 'Ryan1000' 12:44, January 12, 2016 (UTC) ::::::New advisory, 90 mph and 979 mbars. The CPHC noted in their latest forecast discussion that the intensity forecast is more uncertain than usual as the already low-lattitude hurricane moves even further southward towards the equator. They hold the intensity steady a little longer before weakening it. Though Pali is over waters warm enough to support a strong hurricane, it's going to be encountering 10-15 knots of increasing shear, which should limit intensification, unless it settles down as it moves slowly southwest. 'Ryan1000' 16:35, January 12, 2016 (UTC) ::::::::The eye's starting to reappear again, if it can get a well-defined eye with convection of that intensity, major hurricane status isn't out of the question. I believe that Pali has a shot at strongest off-season EPAC storm, despite the shear. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 16:55, January 12, 2016 (UTC) :::::::::Pali is now a Category 2, 85 kts/977 mbar. I just... I... wut --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 21:42, January 12, 2016 (UTC) :::::::::::Well I'll be, this is now the earliest category 2 hurricane ever recorded in the EPac. If Pali does become a major hurricane soon, it'll beat Ekeka's record by almost 3 weeks. It's also now forecast to hang on to hurricane intensity as it moves southwest, eventually crosssing the dateline as Typhoon Pali. 'Ryan1000' 03:41, January 13, 2016 (UTC) :::::::::::Wut wut wut? This actually became a hurricane?! But it's so close to the equator! Oh, but that's not it! Alex has formed in the Atlantic! Welcome to the weirdness, everyone. 001ʎoqǝǝןWelcome to the weirdness! 22:01, January 13, 2016 (UTC) ::::::::::::This is truly weird, for sure. The Northern Hemisphere is not supposed to produce TCs in the middle of winter! And it's unbelievable to see a hurricane so equator-bound. The current forecast is saying that it will weaken to a tropical storm by tomorrow, so the fun may not last much longer. The Southern Hemisphere is also not having any storms currently. It is extremely strange and shocking for there to be no storms in the SHem and a couple in the NHem, in the dead of winter! '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 01:29, January 14, 2016 (UTC) Tropical Storm Pali (2nd time) Pali's been dramatically weakening today. It's down to a generous 65 mph, and it's structure's been sheared apart. In my opinion, I don't think it's any stronger than 50 mph. Although Pali's supposed to restrengthen after getting near the equator, at the rate it's weakening, I'm not too sure Pali will survive, the current forecast bringing it down to tropical depression strength. I still do hope Pali manages to stay together and become a typhoon. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 02:54, January 14, 2016 (UTC) Tropical Depression Pali dead. --HurricaneOdile | happy holidays! and year 14:46, January 14, 2016 (UTC) : Wow, that was quite a sudden death. Less than two days ago Pali was at peak intensity. I guess the proximity to the equator finally dissipated Pali. Farewell, Pali, you were an amazing storm to see in January! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 16:50, January 14, 2016 (UTC) : Bye bye Pali. Fun tracking you! 001ʎoqǝǝןWelcome to the weirdness! 00:17, January 15, 2016 (UTC) : It was fun tracking you! Bye Pali!! :) Now the next named EPac storm should take a long time to come. I would be quite surprised if anything comes between now and the end of April. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 00:50, January 15, 2016 (UTC) ::I'm gonna wait to make a new header until the next advisory makes it official, but according to ATCF Pali is mincemeat. CP, 01, 2016011500, , BEST, 0, 17N, 1732W, '''25, 1005, DB,' 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 180, 60, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, PALI, S, --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 01:33, January 15, 2016 (UTC) Remnants of Pali and Pali is dead. and a long wait starts... --HurricaneOdile | happy holidays! and year 02:56, January 15, 2016 (UTC) : Aww, Pali's gone. I still have my hopes that Pali will regenerate, though. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 19:21, January 15, 2016 (UTC) ::: Hmm, the remnants of Pali are persisting and even seem slightly better organized today... ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 20:28, January 16, 2016 (UTC) ::: 91C.INVEST 91C.INVEST New invest in the CPac, up on WUnderground (though it should be 91C as Pali was 90C). Ryan1000 15:14, January 28, 2016 (UTC) : This is quite insane. Could we see another really early-season CPac event? This El Nino is stirring up some unusual occurrences... [[User:Steve820 |'''Steve820]] ''Talk to me''' 01:12, January 29, 2016 (UTC) : doesn't appear anywhere else now (could be it a test?) --HurricaneOdile | insert message here × × 15:21, January 29, 2016 (UTC) ::: Or it could've been brief-lived, either way, it's gone now. 'Ryan1000' 04:00, January 31, 2016 (UTC) ::::I am also not sure if it was a test or a short lived invest. It could have likely been a test due to the time of year. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 04:26, February 1, 2016 (UTC) May AOI.Southwest of Mexico AOI.Southwest of Mexico First AOI of the EPac season has come up on the TWO. Only 10% for the next 2 and 5 days though. 'Ryan1000' 13:21, May 15, 2016 (UTC) :Eh, it really isn't looking favorable at all at this time. Jdcomix (talk) 16:05, May 15, 2016 (UTC) :::Yeah, this probably won't develop. The models do eventually show something near the start of June or so, but that's too far out to tell for sure. 'Ryan1000' 18:20, May 15, 2016 (UTC) ::::Hi, EPac season! :) Still at 10%, but I'd be surprised if it developed. I don't forsee Agatha coming until closer to the end of the month. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 23:12, May 15, 2016 (UTC) 90E.INVEST Invested. 20% in the next 48 hours of becoming a tropical cyclone. I don't think it's very likely we will get TS Agatha out of this, but it's quite interesting how the first invest forms on the first day of the season. -Bob [[User:Bobnekaro|'Page']] [[Message Wall:Bobnekaro|'Wall']] FORM BONNIE FORM! 01:25, May 16, 2016 (UTC) AOI.Middle of Nowhere AOI.Middle of Nowhere The NHC is now monitoring a new AOI out in the middle of the Pacific Ocean and away from land (hence the title lol), giving it a 10/10 chance to develop. Environmental conditions should make it struggle, and I would be surprised if we did see this become something. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''''' 20:55, May 29, 2016 (UTC)